It has been another topsy turvy week on the international trade front, particularly with our friends (?) and neighbours to the south. It was just mere days ago that word filtered down from on high that a deal was nigh—set to be announced within days, if not hours.
Enter The Ford—Doug Ford, that is, the populist premier of Ontario and self-appointed guardian of our nation’s pocketbooks who took it upon himself to launch a $75 million taxpayer-funded series of ads on American television aimed at influencing American views on The Donald’s “big, beautiful tariffs.”
As the POTUS has set his sights on hauling his country back into the 1890s, it would not take a genius to understand that attempting to thwart his plans in any way shape or form would invite swift retaliation. And so it came to pass that the negotiated trade deal was, at least for now, scuppered. More tariffs to come.
It is an oft-cited truism that you have to stand up to bullies—it’s the only way they say. (We all know a “They” or two). Yeah, try tweaking the nose of a rampaging gorilla 10 times your size and see how that works out for you. There is standing up, and then there is standing up.
Tariffs were all the rage back in the 19th Century and the resulting “Nullification Crisis” was even an early instigator of threats to succession from the United States by South Carolina. Tariff popularity saw a great resurgence during the start of the Great Depression—leading to what has been generously described as “one of the most disastrous trade policies in US history.” Between 1929 and 1932 US exports plummeted by a whopping two thirds.
Somehow, these descents into economic madness led to America being “great.”
Former US President Ronald Reagan tried to make this point to his country when he addressed the nation on the subject, and it was his words, bizarrely and pointlessly rearranged, that provided the grist for The Ford’s sortie into international economics.
The current Canadian government approach has been cautious, you know, the way you might approach that rampaging simian. Since counter-tariffs would invariably hurt Canadian consumers—not to mention the tweaking yet again—Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government decided to not go that route. Canadians are suffering enough economic turmoil, thank you kindly.
Instead, the national government, you know, the one in charge of international trade negotiations and treaties, decided to negotiate quietly, carefully and avoiding provoking unhinged retaliation. It was, by all accounts, working.
It is easy to forget that, despite our national angst and the constant litany of doomsaying pundits on the six o’clock news, that our nation enjoys the most favourable trade terms with the US of any nation on the globe.
Our premier’s populist approach to politics has been great for getting his government re-elected, but when it comes to strategizin’ in a trade war with an economy that dwarves our own being overseen by the aforementioned gorilla, it kind of falls short of the mark. Kneejerk retaliation might bring temporary joy to the masses and provide great 30-second news cycle bits, but it runs the risk of that, again aforementioned, nose tweaking.
A less than charitable read would be that the leader of the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario knew exactly what he was doing and set out to scupper the deal.
The timing of the ads certainly provides some grist to that particular conspiracy theory.
With our current prime minister leading a minority government, and a budget that will take saner minds than those currently ascendant in the opposition benches to get passed through Parliament, a less than uncharitable mind might suggest those Ontarian jobs being lost thanks to his ill-considered foray into the world of advertising have been sacrificed on the altar of realpolitik.
Another national election anyone? It’s all win-win for The Big Blue Ford. If the current leader of His Majesty’s Loyal (?) Opposition in Ottawa fails to make it big should such an election come to pass, who do you think might just be waiting in the wings should the long knives appear?
Time will tell.
In the meantime, Premier Ford has been forced to yet again dial back his anti-American vitriol (anyone remember the electricity gambit?), attempting some face-saving by running his ads during the first two World Series games.
For the sake of those Ontarians, indeed all Canadians, facing uncertain futures thanks to the current trade war with the US, could Premier Ford please focus on getting us a new bridge (and other economy building projects of course) and stop trying to bully a bully—that never really ends well.
