Following the narrow victory of the governing Liberals in the 2025 federal election, after most pundits and polls had predicted a likely majority, and a nearly unprecedented fourth mandate, Canadians might be forgiven for giving pollsters a bit of a stinkeye this morning when faced with what is heading up to be a Liberal minority.
It was supposed to be a blowout loss for the Liberals back in January, then came an unheard-of recovery to majority territory barely a few weeks later, before tightening to a nail-biting tie in the final days of polling.
What is a poor poll watcher to do?
The CBC poll tracker had the Liberals sitting at 42.8 percent, the once 20-point-plus dominant Conservatives close behind at 39.2 percent, the NDP languishing at 8.1 percent and the Bloc Quebecoise sitting at a mere six percent.
The result, although not final, showed a much closer tally (although still not conclusive as of writing during the wee hours of Tuesday morning). The Liberals under Mark Carney took 43.5 percent of the popular vote, the Conservatives under Pierre Poilievre (who lost his own Carleton seat) with 41.4 percent, the Bloc Quebecoise posting 7.34 percent and the NDP under Jagmeet Singh (who also lost his seat) plummeting to 6.3 percent and the Green Party under Elizabeth May (who managed the only Green Party win of the night) hauling in a mere 1.3 percent.
So, what gives? Are polls pointless? South of the border they have failed to predict the winner time and time again, dismally misreading the conservative voting tally when ballot came to marking. The same poor reading of the Conservative strength in Canada has been the result in this last electoral contest.
The media, mea culpa, and the army of pundits they canvas for interpretation wear much of the blame for the misreading—placing far too much weight in the numbers and paying far too little attention to the science and mechanics that underlie polling.
Much of the answer for the discrepancy in the final results and the poll predictions lies in two key areas—the margin of error and the trend lines.
In the case of the CBC Poll Tracker, the predictions attempt to meld both of those into one, taking roiling aggregates from a number of polling agencies to come up with its predictions.
The final results when the ballots were counted actually vindicate the polling, even as they repudiate the prediction—the numbers fall comfortably within the “margin of error.” Taking the graph of the voting intentions line into account—the factor campaigns tend to pay the most attention to—the final numbers actually make total sense. That trendline showed the Liberal voting that had been on a meteoric rise was now on the descent.
Still, polling, for all its scientific pretensions, remains something more of an art.
One of the key lessons to be taken is that polls, especially when they are taken far from the actual election, must be taken with a heavy grain of salt.
As of writing, the poll tracker might still be vindicated as 20 ridings remain too close to call and the projected Liberal numbers fall just four seats short of that coveted majority.
It is unfortunate that Canadian political parties, once so close in philosophy and policy, seem to be irreconcilably divided.
With our nation facing existential threats from our once (and hopefully future) closest ally, this would be a time that calls for a unity government with all hands coming together in a coalition of the willing. Alas, this is not fated to be—especially given the acrimony that has dominated Parliament in the past few years.
The predictions of pundits, those political animals who media love to engage to analyse and crystal ball gaze have also taken a serious hit and shown that there are some significant misunderstandings when it comes to why and how Canadians cast their ballots.
It was a given before election day that the disintegrating NDP vote would break to the Liberals and that Trump and tariffs were the driving forces in voters’ intentions—but when the results from the fabled 905 area are taken into account, it is clear that the Conservatives’ focus on pocketbook issues was at least as ascendant (or at least within the margin of error) in those decisions.
So, election 2025 is now, largely, behind us. Let us fervently hope that our elected representatives can set aside their differences, find governing compromises and steer our ship of state clear of the Trump shoals. All of them need to focus on the threats at hand and collectively get our “elbows up!”
In the meantime, let us all remember that, despite our differences of opinion when it comes to partisan politics, we can all go back to being friends and neighbours. After all, there is far more that we all have in common than that which divides us.
We will remain “Canada Strong.”
