TORONTO—Ontario tells us—with a calm, official voice—that we will miss the 2030 greenhouse-gas target.
But the auditor general, Shelley Spence, leans forward and says: no — the gap will be wider than even that admission.
In her report she lays the bones bare: the province projected a shortfall of 3.5 megatonnes, but the real miss will swallow far more. “Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is important for the future of our province,” Minister Spence said. “The cost of not reducing emissions far outweighs the cost of reduction. We’re already seeing the effects of climate change and the millions of dollars it is costing.”
At a press event, Environment Minister Todd McCarthy offered this twist: “Targets are not outcomes. We believe in achievable outcomes, not unrealistic objectives.”
He insists: the aim is not to chase a number at all costs —
“we can’t put people’s jobs at risk … families’ household budgets at risk by going off in a direction based on some target that’s not achievable.”
But Minister Spence’s findings are unflinching. To even approach the promised reduction, Ontario would need to take the equivalent of half of all fossil-fueled passenger cars off the road in five years. The ministry, she points out, rejects three of her four key recommendations: set longer-term goals beyond 2030 (as 10 other provinces and territories do), open up public consultation on a refreshed climate plan, publish annual progress updates.
Minister Spence shows that the government already knew — as early as January — it would fail to hit 2030, yet chose silence over accountability.
In its secret accounting, Ontario overestimated gains in every sector.
It counted on federal policies that are now dead — the carbon tax, EV subsidies — and assumed progress in organic-waste diversion despite “little to no progress” in those fields.
It chose not to account for its own car-friendly moves: cutting gas taxes, removing tolls — actions that can only invite more tailpipes, more emissions.
In agriculture, the projections hint at a slight drop in emissions — though, in truth, no mandatory plan exists to bend that arc downward.
And the basic legal duties? Lapsed.
No new climate-report since 2021
A 2022 “update” that merely republished the 2021 data.
The 2018 draft climate plan — never advanced to cabinet, never finalized.
Mike Schreiner, Green Party leader, did not mince words:
“I used to say that the government has a made-to-fail climate plan. Now they have no damn plan at all.”
Yes, emissions have fallen 22 percent since 2005,
but that owes less to bold leadership than to the shuttering of coal and the strange pauses of recession and pandemic.
