ONTARIO—While Algoma-Manitoulin MPP Bill Rosenberg and the Federation of Northern Ontario Municipalities (FONOM) are praising the news presented by Ontario Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy in the 2025 Ontario 2025 Fall Economic Statement last week, Liberal and NDP party members and the Chiefs of Ontario (COO) did raise concerns.
“I’m thinking pretty positive that the province is heading in the right direction,” stated MPP Rosenberg of the economic statement outlined last Thursday. “After the budget was released last spring, the financial statement points the province being where we wanted to be, we are on track, growing the economy and reducing the deficit. The numbers are actually a little better than we had expected,” he said, noting the GDP is projected to increase from $800 million to $1.2 trillion.
“All the projected numbers are positive and that reflects back on reducing the deficit,” said Mr. Rosenberg. “We’re also getting many more foreign investors in the province as we try to get away from Mr. Trump and tariffs, and positive things like health—bringing in doctors to Ontario from the US and Quebec.”
Mr. Rosenberg also noted the fall economic statement includes $9 million toward the first stage of the Little Current Swing Bridge. “This is in black and white print as it was in the budget.”
Ontario’s real GDP is projected to rise 0.8 percent in 2025 and 0.9 percent in 2026, in line with the 2025 budget outlook, Minister Bethlenfalvy released. As for Ontario’s 2025-2026 budgeted deficit, it is projected to be $13.5 billion, an improvement of $1.1 billion from the outlook published in the 2025 budget. Over the medium term, the government is forecasting a deficit of $7.8 billion in 2026-2027 and a surplus of $0.2 billion in 2027-2028.
“FONOM acknowledges the Ontario government’s 2025 Fall Economic Statement, which highlights several important investments and initiatives that will directly benefit Northern communities,” a release notes. “FONOM is encouraged by the province’s commitment to balance its books by 2027-2028, while continuing to invest in key infrastructure and affordability measures. The government’s decision to match the federal cut to the HST on new home purchases for first-time buyers, up to $1 million, will provide meaningful support to Ontarians seeking affordable housing.”
“For Northern Ontario, several initiatives stand out,” stated FONOM, “including the pilot project to bring ride-sharing services to communities along the Northlander corridor, the commitment to source GO Transit bi-level rail coaches in Thunder Bay and, as previously mentioned, the investments in road infrastructure such as the Greenstone corridor toward the Ring of Fire.”
FONOM also, “welcomes the increased Connecting Links program funding to $45 million, the rise of the Ontario Community infrastructure Program (OCIP) minimum to $125,000, and the $50 million increase to the Ontario Municipal Partnership Fund (OMPF), now totalling $600 million. These measures will provide municipalities with greater capacity to maintain and improve local infrastructure and essential services.”
The government’s ongoing investment in clean water systems, now totalling $4 billion, including $1.6 billion for upgrades, represents a significant step toward long-term sustainability for many Northern communities, read the FONOM release.
“The increase to the OMPF and the higher minimum under the OCIP are positive signs for our member communities,” said Dave Plourde, president of FONOM. “We’ll continue to advocate on issues that impact Northern municipalities, including the effects of tariffs on local economies. As this is a Fall Economic Statement, FONOM looks forward to continuing our work with the province to ensure Northern communities can address their current challenges and are prepared to contribute to Ontario’s overall success.”
Canadian Press reported that since the provincial budget was tabled less than six months ago, in mid-May, the government’s job creation projects have been revised down from 73,000 to 70,000. Next year, the province is expected to see 35,000 new jobs created up from 33,000 in the previous projection.
Over the next four years, the government has revised job creation down by a total of 1,000, with 3,000 fewer this year and 8,000 fewer than expected in 2027. The numbers for 2026 and 2028 have been updated upwards, CP reported.
The unemployment rate has been revised to worsen from 7.6 to 7.8 percent and is predicted to remain higher than the 2025 budget forecast through to 2028.
“Employment growth is projected to ease further in 2026 to 0.4 percent as economic growth continues to be impacted by the ongoing trade conflicts and the effect of the associated uncertainty on investment and hiring,” the document reads. It added that young workers have been particularly affected.
According to the government website, more than 700,000 people are unemployed in Ontario.
The province’s worsening jobs record is something opposition critics have increasingly focused on, with Ontario NDP leader Marit Stiles referring to Premier Doug Ford as a “jobs disaster,” CP noted.
CP reported that Liberal finance critic Stephanie Bowman said the fiscal update fails to meet the moment due to a lack of new spending to protect jobs and the economic challenges are at least in part the government’s own making.
Chiefs of Ontario (COO) said in a press release that support for economic development, along with expanded loan guarantees, has the potential to advance prosperity and greater opportunity for First Nations communities.
“While some of these developments represent progress, the COO emphasize that underlying, urgent challenges persist across the province. The housing crisis remains acute in claiming lives and destabilizing communities. These issues require sustained, targeted action in tandem with economic and infrastructure investment.”
“I acknowledge Ontario’s investments in community infrastructure and create new economic opportunities for our people,” stated Ontario Regional Chief Abram Benedict. “However, it is imperative that investments in housing, child welfare, and mental health services, especially those addressing the opioid crisis, receive the same level of ongoing attention to ensure safe, healthy, and thriving communities.”
“While the cost of living pressures impact all Ontarians, First Nations are experiencing these challenges to a far greater extent. Housing, groceries, and transportation remain unaffordable in many First Nations, especially those in remote or northern regions,” said Chief Benedict.
Minister Bethlenfalvy outlined delivering on its plan to protect Ontario workers, businesses and communities from the impacts of US tariffs, through the development of Ontario’s tax action plan. This work will focus on updating Ontario’s personal and corporate income taxes to encourage and attract more business investment, help improve Ontario’s competitiveness in the G7 and lower costs or provide relief for individuals and families in the years and decades to come. An update on the Tax Action Plan will be provided in the 2026 Ontario budget.
The government is investing an additional $100 million in the Ontario Together Trade Fund to further help smaller and medium-sized enterprises diversify into new market and strengthen trade resiliency.
To help Ontario manufacturers and processors lower their costs, innovate, and become more competitive the province is introducing legislation to enhance and expand the Ontario Made manufacturing investment tax credit, a 15 percent non-refundable benefit to corporations that are Canadian-controlled private corporations.
The province is investing $1.1 billion over three years to extend home care services and the Hospital to Home program, supporting sectors affected by US tariffs through the $5 billion Protecting Ontario Account. The province is continuing to invest in the provinces most ambitious capital plan, with planned investments totalling more than $201 billion over 10 years, including over $33 billion in 2025-2026. This plan will help keep workers on the job in the face of economic uncertainly caused by tariffs.
